Football fans across Europe may still be trying to get their heads around the new Champions League format for this season, but the simple takeaway for Liverpool supporters is this – we’re in a very healthy position at the quarterway mark in the league phase.
Keeping track of a 36-team table is a darn sight more complicated than calculating the mental arithmetic around the time-honoured structure of four-club groups, but for the Reds, the basic brief is to simply take care of their own business and let the others fall in around them.
That’s exactly what Arne Slot’s side have done up to this point, with victories over AC Milan and Bologna making them one of just seven teams with a 100% record after two matches and putting them on course to qualify automatically for the round of 16 (the full standings can be viewed here).
The top eight finishers will go directly to that phase of the tournament, with the teams ranked 9th to 24th entering a two-legged play-off round to join the best-performing octet.
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Avoiding an additional hurdle would obviously be beneficial to Liverpool not just in terms of swerving two added matches in what’s already a congested calendar, but also being exempted from one potentially tricky tie in February.
While the Reds can proudly boast two wins out of two in the Champions League so far, the same can’t be said for Real Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern Munich or Paris Saint-Germain, with those four heavyweights already beaten once in the competition.
The latter two both succumbed to English opposition this week, with the Bavarian giants losing to Aston Villa and PSG defeated by Arsenal, results which have helped to strengthen LFC’s position as some of the tournament favourites are already playing catch-up.
Opta’s supercomputer has projected that 10 points will likely be enough to at least secure a play-off berth, with 16 almost certainly sufficient to earn a direct passage to the round of 16 (Sky Sports).
Liverpool are already more than halfway towards the former target with only a quarter of the league phase completed, and have six more matches to earn the 10 points which realistically would see them avoid an extra tie in February.
Of course, Slot’s team still have some daunting fixtures ahead of them. Their next three Champions League games bring a trip to RB Leipzig, an Anfield clash against Bundesliga kings Bayer Leverkusen and a meeting with old foes Real Madrid, who to put it mildly have had the Indian sign over us for the past decade.
Even four or five points from those fixtures should still leave us in favourable position to skip the play-off round, with Girona (away), Lille (away) and PSV Eindhoven (home) to come afterwards.
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Even if Liverpool secure a place in the last 16 with a game or two to spare, they’ll still want to push for as many points as possible, with each finishing position within the top eight determining their pathway for the entirety of the knockout stage.
At least if the Reds seal a top-eight finish ahead of time, it gives them a buffer to withstand a draw or defeat without any considerable damage being done.
There’s still some huge obstacles to overcome, of course, but at least LFC are in a position where they have some room for error – partly thanks to Arsenal and Villa conquering two of the big guns, but primarily thanks to Slot’s team simply capitalising on what they can control.